According to ExxonMobil’s recently published Outlook For Energy: A View to 2040, diesel will surpass gasoline as the number one global transportation fuel by 2020.
As automakers continue to look for ways to improve light-duty vehicle fuel economy, diesel engines are becoming more and more prevalent, even in America. Notoriously popular in Europe for decades, the growth in commercial transportation activity will also increase diesel demand over the next few years.
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According to the report, diesel demand accounts for 70 percent of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through 2040. Heavy-duty vehicles are the largest subsector and will see the greatest growth, up 65 percent, and will account for 40 percent of all transportation demand by 2040.
ExxonMobil also expects that hybrid vehicles’ cost will decrease around 2025, helping increase its market share significantly. By 2040, ExxonMobil expects full hybrid vehicles to make up 40 percent of the fleet while electric and plug-in hybrids will be around 5 percent of the fleet.
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The report also states that by 2040, new cars globally will average around 47 mpg on the US cycle, compared to about 27 mpg currently. As for natural gas, it is expected to account for 4 percent of the global transportation fuel mix in 2040, up from today’s 1 percent.
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