Chrysler to Can Three Models: But Which Three?

UPDATE: Since posting this article Chrysler has announced that the three vehicles slated for elimination are the Chrysler PT Cruiser, Chrysler Aspen and Dodge Durango – all three of which the company had already announced were doomed. Feel free to read our exercise in creative writing/wishful thinking anyway.

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When Chrysler announced yesterday in its Viability Plan submitted to the U.S. Treasury that it would reduce its workforce by 3,000 jobs and eliminate three vehicles from its lineup they didn’t mention which models would get the axe.

Not prepared to wait and find out, we’ve gone over the sales numbers and the recent reports from Chrysler to come up with a short list of models that have the best chance of being canned. And then we’ll choose our top three dead-pool picks.

For starters, Chrysler currently sells a total of 27 vehicles: 7 Chrysler models, 13 Dodge models (if you list all the Rams as one), and 7 Jeep models.

From the list we can already eliminate the PT Cruiser, Aspen, Aspen Hybrid, Durango and Magnum because all of those models have already been slated for the history books. So now we have just 22 models.

The Viper can also be eliminated fro the list because Chrysler has continuously announced that it wants to sell the brand and is currently in talks to do just that.

Based on the fact that both the Chrysler 300C and the Jeep Grand Cherokee appeared in Chrysler’s Viability Plan, we can assume these models are safe. And considering the Charger shares the same platform as the 300C and actually suffered only an 18 percent loss in sales versus the 300C’s 48 percent decline, we can’t see Chrysler eliminating that model either.

Now we’re down to 18.

Other keepers are sure to be the Ram and the Dakota, which despite a 49 percent drop in sales for 2008 is a necessary vehicle in the Dodge lineup. The Sprinter commercial truck is also a necessity. Also safe are both minivans, the Chrysler Town and Country and the Dodge Grand Caravan.

The Jeep lineup continues to be cluttered but on the whole it does very well and with the Wrangler listed as Jeep’s top seller, we can’t see Chrysler cut it or the Wrangler Unlimited from the list.

All of a sudden, we’re down to 11.

Some other simple eliminations from our list would include any brand new platforms and any compact crossover-type vehicles that are most popular right now. That being said the new Challenger and Journey are keepers. The Caliber is also likely to stay as it is essentially the Chrysler brand’s entry level vehicle.

Naturally we’d say the Nitro and Liberty are safe, but rumors have already surfaced that Chrysler plans to axe one of the two vehicles – likely the poorly selling Nitro.

And there you have it.. one of the three in Chrysler’s dead-pool. But we still have six vehicles to go. For the record, they are: the Chrysler Sebring, Chrysler Sebring Convertible, Dodge Avenger, Jeep Commander, Jeep Compass and Jeep Patriot.

Shockingly this short list of potential vehicles-to-be-cut includes both the Chrysler Sebring and Dodge Avenger. The fact that they are high volume vehicles and mid-sized sedans should put them out of harm’s way. Then again, they are terrible. We’ll say they’re safe for now though. As for the Sebring Convertible, well, nobody needs a convertible and in this economic climate needs certainly outweigh wants, and so it’s a definite candidate for elimination.

Our remaining three vehicles to discuss are the Jeep Commander, Compass and Patriot, three similar SUVs (especially the Compass and Patriot). And while the redundancy does seem to put either the Compass or Patriot up on the chopping block, the Commander is our dead-pool pick considering it’s sales decline of 56 percent from last year.

So there you have it, our list of the most likely three vehicles to be eliminated from the Chrysler family are:

Official Chrysler 2008 sales figures afte the jump:

Chrysler LLC U.S. Sales Summary Thru December 2008
Month Sales Vol % Sales CYTD Vol %
Model Curr Yr Pr Yr Change Curr Yr Pr Yr Change
Sebring 3,572 9,274 -61% 71,663 93,130 -23%
300 3,707 9,950 -63% 62,352 120,636 -48%
Crossfire 110 180 -39% 2,021 8,774 -77%
PT Cruiser 1,823 9,738 -81% 50,910 99,585 -49%
Aspen 1,515 3,022 -50% 22,254 28,788 -23%
Pacifica 574 2,009 -71% 7,345 53,947 -86%
Town & Country 8,152 14,211 -43% 118,563 138,151 -14%
CHRYSLER BRAND 19,453 48,384 -60% 335,108 543,011 -38%
Compass 1,225 3,295 -63% 25,349 39,491 -36%
Patriot 2,597 4,987 -48% 55,654 40,434 38%
Wrangler 7,048 9,007 -22% 84,615 119,243 -29%
Liberty 4,529 9,941 -54% 66,911 92,105 -27%
Grand Cherokee 5,504 11,753 -53% 73,678 120,937 -39%
Commander 2,188 5,821 -62% 27,694 63,027 -56%
JEEP BRAND 23,091 44,804 -48% 333,901 475,237 -30%
Caliber 2,896 8,851 -67% 84,158 101,079 -17%
Avenger 2,050 8,146 -75% 61,963 83,804 -26%
Charger 5,414 11,115 -51% 97,367 119,289 -18%
Challenger 2,602 0 0% 17,423 0 0%
Viper 152 46 230% 1,172 435 169%
Magnum 31 2,278 -99% 6,912 30,256 -77%
Dakota 1,701 2,873 -41% 26,044 50,702 -49%
Ram P/U 16,618 32,118 -48% 245,840 358,295 -31%
Journey 4,275 109 3822% 47,097 109 43108%
Caravan 6,927 21,217 -67% 123,749 176,041 -30%
Durango 1,435 2,480 -42% 21,420 45,503 -53%
Nitro 2,036 7,350 -72% 36,368 74,825 -51%
Sprinter 1,132 1,652 -31% 14,600 16,586 -12%
DODGE BRAND 47,269 98,235 -52% 784,113 1,058,402 -26%

TOTAL CHRYSLER LLC 89,813 191,423 -53% 1,453,122 2,076,650 -30%

TOTAL CAR 20,535 50,273 -59% 406,125 569,859 -29%
TOTAL TRUCK 69,278 141,150 -51% 1,046,997 1,506,791 -31%
Selling Days 26 26 308 307